http://www.bob-mcteer-blog.com/greenspan-and-forecasting/ Bob McTeer's Blog Thu, 20 Nov 2008 20:57:59 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.2 http://www.bob-mcteer-blog.com/greenspan-and-forecasting/#comment-6681 David Dimick Wed, 11 Jun 2008 19:44:10 +0000 http://www.bob-mcteer-blog.com/greenspan-and-forecasting/#comment-6681 The increasing number of baby boomers retiring soon has given rise to several demographic predictions among market analysts: One is that as the boomers age, they will increasingly consume more prescription medications and thus benefit big pharma. This has not taken place largley because of the industry being used as a whipping boy for politicians on both sides of the aisle. Politicians now hope to institute a "windfall profits" tax increase on big oil. In the case of pharmaceuticals, it means that there will be less innovative medications for less common diseases as the governments will likely punish makers of drugs used for smaller numbers of the population as these medications by their nature are more expensive. The glioma that Senator Kennedy is suffering from sadly comes to mind. The bottom line is that meddling with the free market can alter expected demographic consequences, either good or bad. The increasing number of baby boomers retiring soon has given rise to several demographic predictions among market analysts: One is that as the boomers age, they will increasingly consume more prescription medications and thus benefit big pharma. This has not taken place largley because of the industry being used as a whipping boy for politicians on both sides of the aisle.
Politicians now hope to institute a “windfall profits” tax increase on big oil. In the case of pharmaceuticals, it means that there will be less innovative medications for less common diseases as the governments will likely punish makers of drugs used for smaller numbers of the population as these medications by their nature are more expensive. The glioma that Senator Kennedy is suffering from sadly comes to mind. The bottom line is that meddling with the free market can alter expected demographic consequences, either good or bad.

]]> http://www.bob-mcteer-blog.com/greenspan-and-forecasting/#comment-6672 James Hoffman Wed, 11 Jun 2008 00:59:08 +0000 http://www.bob-mcteer-blog.com/greenspan-and-forecasting/#comment-6672 Mr. McTeer,I had the pleasure to hear you speak at the HS Dent conference in Tampa,Fl. and valued your insight then,and again today,thank you,Jim.... Mr. McTeer,I had the pleasure to hear you speak at the HS Dent conference in Tampa,Fl. and valued your insight then,and again today,thank you,Jim….

]]> http://www.bob-mcteer-blog.com/greenspan-and-forecasting/#comment-6615 Ward Fri, 06 Jun 2008 19:18:48 +0000 http://www.bob-mcteer-blog.com/greenspan-and-forecasting/#comment-6615 William Bernstein's book The Birth of Plenty says Great Britian ran a current account deficit from 1765 to 1915. I guess that proves its unsustainable but I wonder if anyone knows why productivity has grown so much. Did everyone in the US all of a sudden get all the benefit of years of IT spending all at once from '95 on? William Bernstein’s book The Birth of Plenty says Great Britian ran a current account deficit from 1765 to 1915. I guess that proves its unsustainable but I wonder if anyone knows why productivity has grown so much. Did everyone in the US all of a sudden get all the benefit of years of IT spending all at once from ‘95 on?

]]> http://www.bob-mcteer-blog.com/greenspan-and-forecasting/#comment-6613 Forecasting the Payroll Employment Number | Economist Blog Fri, 06 Jun 2008 14:08:59 +0000 http://www.bob-mcteer-blog.com/greenspan-and-forecasting/#comment-6613 [...] the results.  We always enjoy reading Bob McTeer, whose blog is one of our featured sites.  His recent commentary notes that economists are not very good at forecasting. Unfortunately for the reputation of economists [...] [...] the results.  We always enjoy reading Bob McTeer, whose blog is one of our featured sites.  His recent commentary notes that economists are not very good at forecasting. Unfortunately for the reputation of economists [...]

]]> http://www.bob-mcteer-blog.com/greenspan-and-forecasting/#comment-6586 Matthew Tue, 03 Jun 2008 18:01:10 +0000 http://www.bob-mcteer-blog.com/greenspan-and-forecasting/#comment-6586 Although the above post shows your view on forecasts in general, I'd like to hear your opinion on Greenspan's inflation forecast - that the slowing rate of growth in the global labor force, combined with slowing rate of productivity growth, will produce rising global inflationary pressures? Although the above post shows your view on forecasts in general, I’d like to hear your opinion on Greenspan’s inflation forecast - that the slowing rate of growth in the global labor force, combined with slowing rate of productivity growth, will produce rising global inflationary pressures?

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